題目：Accurate Medium-Range Global Weather Forecasting with 3D Deep Neural Networks

報告人：田奇

時間：2023年10月20日（周五），上午10:00—11:00

地點：31-904

報告摘要：

Weather forecasting is important for science and society. Currently, the most accurate forecast system is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) method, which represents atmospheric states as discretized grids and numerically solves partial differential equations (PDEs) that describe the transition between those states. However, this procedure is computationally expensive. Recently, AI-based weather forecasting methods have shown potential in accelerating weather forecasting by orders of magnitudes, but the forecast accuracy is still significantly lower than that of NWP methods. In this paper, we introduce an AI-based method for accurate, medium-range global weather forecasting. We show that 3D deep networks equipped with Earth-specific priors are effective at dealing with complex patterns in weather data, and that a hierarchical temporal aggregation strategy reduces accumulation errors in medium-range forecasting. Trained on 39 years of global data, our program, Pangu-Weather, is the first to obtain stronger deterministic forecast results on reanalysis data in all tested variables, when compared with the world’s best NWP system, the operational integrated forecasting system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our method also works well with extreme weather forecasts and ensemble forecasts. When initialized with reanalysis data, the accuracy of tracking tropical cyclones is higher than ECMWF-HRES.

報告挥霍无度人簡介△：

田奇，華為雲人工智能領域首席科學家，國際歐亞科學院院←士，教育部長江◣講座教授、國家自然¤科學基金海外傑青，中國科學院海外評審專闲来垂钓碧溪上家，IEEE/CAAI Fellow，中國人工智能學會吳文俊人工魔煞轻甲智能領域傑出貢獻獎獲※得者。2018年6月-2020年3月擔任華為諾亞方舟實驗室計算視覺首席科學▼家。田奇教授高中〗畢業於成都七中（1987級），本科畢業赵虎娃於清華大學電子工程系（1992），後赴美】國伊利諾伊大學香檳分校學習，師從Thomas S. Huang教⊙授獲博士學位（2002）。後歷任美國德克薩斯大學聖安東尼奧分校計算機系助＠理教授、副教授、和正教授（2002-2019），2010年獲Google Faculty Research Award, 2017年UTSA校長傑出研究獎、2016年獲雷霆山評多媒體領域10大最弗兰迪具影響力的學者，並於2018年入選國家級領軍人才創新項目ㄨ。田教授是IEEE TMM, TCSVT, TNNLS, ACM TOMM、Multimedia Systems Journal等多個期刊的Associate Editor。他擁有多項美國專利，在計算機視覺及多媒●體方向頂級期刊及會議秋雨梧桐叶落时如IEEE TPAMI，IJCV，TIP，TMM，CVPR,  ICCV，ECCV，ACM MM上發表牛仔小裤文章約750+余篇（包括220 篇IEEE/ACM期刊和210篇CCF A類會議文章），谷歌學術引用次數57000+，h指數為106，有8篇論文獲最佳論文獎或者最佳學冯拴梅生論文包括ACM Multimedia等。田教授的盤古氣象大模型論文發表於《Nature》雜誌正刊。